Money and muscle cannot always compete with geography - that seems to be the message coming out of Riyadh as the Saudis grapple with the proper response to the Houthi attacks on their territory. The numerous reports filtering in reflect a diverse array of initiatives and steps the kingdom is taking. This, on one hand, may mirror a multipronged approach, or, on the other, reflect confusion.

The report that the Saudis have offered $1 billion to the Houthis to stop the attacks they began launching since July this year on the Kingdom has made headlines. According to reports that appeared in the Israeli media, Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman travelled to Tehran for talks about a possible ceasefire with the Houthis. This proposal apparently involves the transfer of $1 billion to the group through Iran. Of course, Saudi authorities have not confirmed it.

The Mecca Pact

The first step, however, in a coordinated policy to counter the Houthis came some months ago, when the Mecca Pact was signed in Islam's holiest city, as the nomenclature reflects, between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. With much fanfare on Friday, the three announced the signing of the pact. The import was not lost. Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Muslim world by virtue of being home to Islam's two holiest sites, had just teamed up with two of the Sunni world's most powerful militaries. Deterrence, as all three parties to the pact took pains to point out, was the agreement's main aim. There was no doubt about whom the pact was aimed at. The Houthis have caused more damage to the Kingdom in recent times than any other group. Yet, the pact failed to deter the group, which has been almost on a rampage, striking airports, oil pipelines, and other critical infrastructure. And none of the Mecca Pact members fulfilled their obligations, as the pact still requires domestic ratification. While Pakistan has now ratified it, there is much domestic opposition to it; Turkey, on the other hand, has refused to ratify combat operations against the Houthis, which would make it a party to the war with them. And Saudi Arabia seems incapable of taking on the Houthis on its own, despite investing billions in sophisticated, western-made arms.

In fact, this inability is not something new, and, therefore, the Saudi decision to start a fresh war with the Houthis remains something of a mystery. In 2015, when Houthi rebels overtook the Yemeni capital of Sanaa and forced the internationally recognised government to flee to the South, the Saudis, together with the UAE, intervened militarily to restore the government to power. It was a brutal intervention, killing hundreds in the already impoverished country, displacing thousands, and triggering a humanitarian crisis. But almost a decade later - by which time the UAE had withdrawn from the war - the Houthis could not be completely defeated, and a UN-brokered ceasefire took place. The fragile calm had been in place even after the US-Israel war on Iran broke out and Iran-supported "resistance " groups such as Hezbollah and the Iraqi militias joined in. The Houthis remained aloof, though they issued periodic threats.

But Saudi-backed attacks on aircraft carrying Houthi members returning to Yemen after attending Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's funeral in Iran in July were one of the triggers for this round of fighting. While the Houthis have intensified the attacks, the Saudis see incapable of stopping them.

The Undoing Of 'Saudi Security'

The Houthis, operating from just across the border, represent one of the most serious threats to the Saudi kingdom. They have demonstrated their ability to strike deep within Saudi territory, have the potential to close off the Bab al-Mandeb, a major chokepoint near the Red Sea and the main alternative sea lane for Saudi energy exports after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and have announced a blockade on Saudi shipping. They have busted the myth of Saudi security; several Indians have also lost their lives in these attacks. Security and stability are something the Kingdom needs more than ever as it works on the diversification of its economy, something that is hinged on the ambitious projects such as NEOM, which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has launched. These have already been put on hold.

Therefore, it might not be illogical for the Saudis to try a different approach to stop the attacks.

As reports of money being offered trickled in, so did news that the Mecca Pact members were meeting Iran for discussions. Iranian Foreign Minister has on a number of occasions offered to mediate between the Saudis and the Houthis. Given that neither Pakistan nor Turkey is keen to actively enter the Saudi-Houthi war, reluctant to pick sides and to become a party to the war against the Houthis, they have also called for mediation to bring about a ceasefire, while condemning the Houthi attacks.

The NYT Piece

However, yet another perspective reflected in a New York Times Opinion piece written by Saudi diplomat Princess Reema bint Bandar bin Sultan in Washington DC, who called for a "coordinated international response" to the Houthis, nudging the international community to take action against the Houthis, something akin to international action against ISIS.

This may seem to be a carrot-and-sticks policy by the Saudis. While President Donald Trump has threatened to renew military action after the midterms in the US are over and warned of similar action against the Houthis, this is still in the realm of speculation. Much of the world has displayed reluctance in becoming a party to the war. Post-election dynamics in Israel will also need to be factored in. If incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is able to form the government, we may see war return to the region.

So, it remains to be seen how the Houthis will respond to such threats. The group may use this window to intensify its attacks and force the Saudis to come to the negotiating table before the US midterms and the government formation in Israel, where they can then negotiate from a position of strength. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain. For the Houthis, the objective is no longer a ceasefire but a settlement in Yemen, where they would push for an end to Saudi backing of the Yemen government and to consolidate their hold on the country.

On the other hand, Iran, too, would like to use Houthi leverage to negotiate with both the Saudis and the US. Voices in the Gulf have repeatedly called for a regional security architecture and settlement. This would be in the best interest of the region. But it would require Iran, too, to participate in the process. Whether it will, remains anyone's guess.

(The author is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author